that stories will circulate regardless of their factual nature....
i.e. the imagination will rule!
Revolution, flashmobs, and brain chips. A grim vision of the future
Richard Norton-Taylor
Monday April 9, 2007
Guardian
Information chips implanted in the brain. Electromagnetic pulse
weapons. The middle classes becoming revolutionary, taking on the role
of Marx's proletariat. The population of countries in the Middle East
increasing by 132%, while Europe's drops as fertility falls.
"Flashmobs" - groups rapidly mobilised by criminal gangs or terrorists
groups.
This is the world in 30 years' time envisaged by a Ministry of Defence
team responsible for painting a picture of the "future strategic
context" likely to face Britain's armed forces. It includes an
"analysis of the key risks and shocks". Rear Admiral Chris Parry, head
of the MoD's Development, Concepts & Doctrine Centre which drew up the
report, describes the assessments as "probability-based, rather than
predictive".
The 90-page report comments on widely discussed issues such as the
growing economic importance of India and China, the militarisation of
space, and even what it calls "declining news quality" with the rise
of "internet-enabled, citizen-journalists" and pressure to release
stories "at the expense of facts". It includes other, some
frightening, some reassuring, potential developments that are not so
often discussed.
New weapons
An electromagnetic pulse will probably become operational by 2035 able
to destroy all communications systems in a selected area or be used
against a "world city" such as an international business service hub.
The development of neutron weapons which destroy living organs but not
buildings "might make a weapon of choice for extreme ethnic cleansing
in an increasingly populated world". The use of unmanned weapons
platforms would enable the "application of lethal force without human
intervention, raising consequential legal and ethical issues". The
"explicit use" of chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear
weapons and devices delivered by unmanned vehicles or missiles.
Technology
By 2035, an implantable "information chip" could be wired directly to
the brain. A growing pervasiveness of information communications
technology will enable states, terrorists or criminals, to mobilise
"flashmobs", challenging security forces to match this potential
agility coupled with an ability to concentrate forces quickly in a
small area.
Marxism
"The middle classes could become a revolutionary class, taking the
role envisaged for the proletariat by Marx," says the report. The
thesis is based on a growing gap between the middle classes and the
super-rich on one hand and an urban under-class threatening social
order: "The world's middle classes might unite, using access to
knowledge, resources and skills to shape transnational processes in
their own class interest". Marxism could also be revived, it says,
because of global inequality. An increased trend towards moral
relativism and pragmatic values will encourage people to seek the
"sanctuary provided by more rigid belief systems, including religious
orthodoxy and doctrinaire political ideologies, such as popularism and
Marxism".
Pressures leading to social unrest
By 2010 more than 50% of the world's population will be living in
urban rather than rural environments, leading to social deprivation
and "new instability risks", and the growth of shanty towns. By 2035,
that figure will rise to 60%. Migration will increase. Globalisation
may lead to levels of international integration that effectively bring
inter-state warfare to an end. But it may lead to "inter-communal
conflict" - communities with shared interests transcending national
boundaries and resorting to the use of violence.
Population and Resources
The global population is likely to grow to 8.5bn in 2035, with less
developed countries accounting for 98% of that. Some 87% of people
under the age of 25 live in the developing world. Demographic trends,
which will exacerbate economic and social tensions, have serious
implications for the environment - including the provision of clean
water and other resources - and for international relations. The
population of sub-Saharan Africa will increase over the period by 81%,
and that of Middle Eastern countries by 132%.
The Middle East
The massive population growth will mean the Middle East, and to a
lesser extent north Africa, will remain highly unstable, says the
report. It singles out Saudi Arabia, the most lucrative market for
British arms, with unemployment levels of 20% and a "youth bulge" in a
state whose population has risen from 7 million to 27 million since
1980. "The expectations of growing numbers of young people [in the
whole region] many of whom will be confronted by the prospect of
endemic unemployment ... are unlikely to be met," says the report.
Islamic militancy
Resentment among young people in the face of unrepresentative regimes
"will find outlets in political militancy, including radical political
Islam whose concept of Umma, the global Islamic community, and
resistance to capitalism may lie uneasily in an international system
based on nation-states and global market forces", the report warns.
The effects of such resentment will be expressed through the migration
of youth populations and global communications, encouraging contacts
between diaspora communities and their countries of origin.
Tension between the Islamic world and the west will remain, and may
increasingly be targeted at China "whose new-found materialism,
economic vibrancy, and institutionalised atheism, will be an anathema
to orthodox Islam".
Iran
Iran will steadily grow in economic and demographic strength and its
energy reserves and geographic location will give it substantial
strategic leverage. However, its government could be transformed.
"From the middle of the period," says the report, "the country,
especially its high proportion of younger people, will want to benefit
from increased access to globalisation and diversity, and it may be
that Iran progressively, but unevenly, transforms...into a vibrant
democracy."
Terrorism
Casualties and the amount of damage inflicted by terrorism will stay
low compared to other forms of coercion and conflict. But acts of
extreme violence, supported by elements within Islamist states, with
media exploitation to maximise the impact of the "theatre of violence"
will persist. A "terrorist coalition", the report says, including a
wide range of reactionary and revolutionary rejectionists such as
ultra-nationalists, religious groupings and even extreme
environmentalists, might conduct a global campaign of greater
intensity".
Climate change
There is "compelling evidence" to indicate that climate change is
occurring and that the atmosphere will continue to warm at an
unprecedented rate throughout the 21st century. It could lead to a
reduction in north Atlantic salinity by increasing the freshwater
runoff from the Arctic. This could affect the natural circulation of
the north Atlantic by diminishing the warming effect of ocean currents
on western Europe. "The drop in temperature might exceed that of the
miniature ice age of the 17th and 18th centuries."
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